Toulouse are almost definitely coming up as part of the top 12 graded by IMG. Their finances have improved, crowds are up (they averaged 2,700 in 2024 and they've already had a couple of 5,000+ crowds this season), and they're probably going to make the final again.
That's precisely why most of the clubs have voted to expand - to make up the perceived financial shortfall because of Toulouse. I can see the logic in that, not just on gameday, but also because French supporters can't subscribe to Sky (though they could subscribe to Amazon/Dazn et al). I imagine that's why Ellis voted for it, advised by other leaders at the club.
Salford won't make the 12, and the independent panel will deny their application. York, Bradford, Oldham, London and potentially some no-hopers will apply, potentially on the proviso they'll fund themselves for 2026 and not take any of the TV money. Then as of 2027, when a new deal's in place, they'll take their share of the pot.
I've been following everything coming out of London, and I can't see them being ready for 2026. But they're seen as a big draw for broadcasters because of their potential subscription market. RL fans know that's a bit of a fantasy, but I suppose it doesn't matter to the negotiators.
On a personal note, I'm not fussed about Oldham. Boring brand, limited scope for growth, tiny crowds, big stadium, built on sand. I'd be happy with York for a number of reasons - great stadium, good brand, interesting team, financially sound. Bradford I don't want up purely on principle now, but it's playing out in slow motion.
